Pneumonia coronavirus pandemic: Will the coronavirus pandemic slow in summer?

Pneumonia coronavirus pandemic: Will the coronavirus pandemic slow in summer?
In the clear spring, when the citizens of London went to enjoy the fresh air and sunshine outdoors, they had to because of the coronavirus pandemic.
The coronavirus pandemic of new coronaviruses may slowly subside as the weather gets hot. This statement is now ignored because the world is caught in the quagmire of the coronavirus pandemic, but does the emergence of new research give us a glimmer of hope?

It is too early to determine whether the new coronavirus is a seasonal virus. To really determine this problem, we need to observe the changes in cases in a place throughout the year.

However, we can observe the spread of the new coronavirus in different climates around the world to obtain some clues.

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Climatic factors
Studies have shown that cases of new coronavirus infection are particularly concentrated in colder and dry areas.

One study showed that countries with a particularly severe virus outbreak before March 10 (places where community infections occur within the territory) have lower average temperatures than those with fewer cases.

Another study collected data from 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 new cases of pneumonia. The results showed that the higher the temperature and humidity, the lower the infection rate.

Another study that has not been reviewed by medical research colleagues says that although the new coronavirus cases are all over the world, the coronavirus pandemic is particularly concentrated in "relatively cold and dry areas", at least until March 23.

However, a group of researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said that the new coronavirus has now spread to the whole world. In fact, all the climatic forms of the earth are cold, dry and hot And wet.

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North-South gap
Influenza and other viruses have seasonal coronavirus pandemics in the southern and northern hemispheres, but in tropical regions close to the equator, this seasonal pattern is not obvious.

Some tropical humid areas where community infection of New Coronavirus has occurred, such as Malaysia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, are located closer to the equator and may not be suitable as a reference for changes in the coronavirus pandemic situation in other places.

But looking at Australia and New Zealand in the southern hemisphere, their first cases occurred in the summer (although at the end of the summer), and their cases were much less than in many countries in the northern hemisphere.

In addition to climate, there are many factors that need to be taken into account, such as global population movement and the density of population distribution.

The spread of the new coronavirus is a gradual process. It started with people moving around the world, and at the same time, it just caught up with seasonal changes, so it is difficult to isolate the seasonal factors alone.

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New coronavirus and other coronaviruses
Researchers at University College London (UCL) and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said there is evidence that other coronaviruses are mainly transmitted in winter.

The researchers asked 2,000 people to provide a weekly record of whether someone had symptoms of respiratory disease at home, and if so, to sample for viruses.

It was found that coronavirus cases peaked in winter, roughly the same as the flu season, and few cases in summer.

Ellen Fragaszy of University College London said that the summer coronavirus pandemic may be slightly slowed, but it is not certain whether the new coronavirus is the same.

Moreover, there are so many cases of new coronavirus transmission worldwide, and we cannot hope that the summer will slow down the coronavirus pandemic.

The transmission of the new coronavirus seems to be basically the same as other coronaviruses, but the symptoms are more severe after infection and the number of deaths is also greater.

According to Michael Head of the University of Southampton, judging from the pathogenicity and development of the new coronavirus, the new coronavirus is significantly different from the coronavirus that causes the common cold.

He said it remains to be seen whether cases of new coronavirus infection will decrease with environmental factors such as temperature and humidity.